I’m a futurist, a writer and a policy wonk. This means I look at things and re-look atthem, and then re-look at them, trying to figure out where we’re going, what’sgoing to happen, what’s likely to happen and why. It’s not based on wish fulfillment so much aspast performance by society in similar instances, my observances andexperiences. And while I may take anidea toward an extreme to prove a point the writer in me simply doesn’t let meget too far.
In short, the facts rarely conform to our wishes and we needto be open to explore them in order to either work through our acceptance ofthem or determine what we can do to control them.
The example I give you is Star Trek and to a lesser degreemy Space Oddity Universe stories. Inboth cases they’re futures predicated on the idea that tough times are aheadbut certain things we’re capable of may allow us to aim more towards a betterfuture rather than the dystopian one of our baser instincts.
The biggest idea in both series is the idea ofcommunity. Not the “tend the garden” and“put up a wall to protect” type of community, for that’s often represents theworst part of humanity. I’m talkingabout the reaching out and looking after each part of community.
It’s the concept of ‘Stone Soup’, an analogy where oneperson brings a stone to make soup with and then every one else brings one itemthey have, none of which individually can feed even the person who brings it(pot, water, scraps of meat, a carrot, a potato, etc, etc, etc) until thecombination is not only soup but enough to feed everyone. Another term for this is the “SocialContract” or to paraphrase John F Kennedy, “What you can do for thewhole, not what can be done for you”.
In short, ‘together we are better’.
And yes, that means all of us. The son of a Syrian refugee revolutionizedpersonal communication when he created Apple Computers and the grandson of aGerman immigrant who ruined Americawhen he completely mismanaged a pandemic while focusing only on wealth and hisfragile ego.
But I digress.
Just this century – and we’re only in the 20thyear of that – we’ve already had 7 major epidemics that were categorized as“worldwide” events (SARS from 2002-2004; Mumps 2009; H1N1 “Swine Flu”2009-2010; MERS 2012 onward; West Africa Ebola 2013-2016; Zika Virus 2015-2016and Covid19) and this is not including the devastating 2017/2018 InfluenzaSeason in America which killed some 80 thousand people.
Very few of them began in “wet markets” but they all haveone thing in common, they began in and spread through concentrations of humanpopulations.
This decade the human population will surpass 8BILLION. Even if Covid-19 kills the samepercentage of humans that the 1918 Influenza did (which is quite wrongly called“Spanish Flu”) then this decade the human population will surpass 8 Billion.
And the more people we have the more likely we’ll be hitwith another and another and another pandemic. Some will be mild (Zika); other’s devastating (Covid-19), but one thingis certain, we haven’t seen the last of these things.
Many politicians have likened this to a war. Well, we’re sure not thinking of it likethat. Wars are to be avoided if possiblebut if unavoidable then we need to ensure that our society is geared towardit. One of the first things that happenswhen war is declared is production of materials needed to fight it. The second is training of personnel. The third is mobilization and preparedness. The economy during war changes, often itgrows, and yes, people die.
If, as is likely, we’re just now becoming aware that we’rein a war, and if we’re smart about our future, then we will pivot to a wareconomy. Not a sheltering one, whereeverything pauses while the NAZI’s bomb us, but like London one that takescover during each wave of the attack and then rises as soon as it’s over,cleans up, rebuilds, buries our dead and prepares for the next round. And for the sacrifices needed to end it.
We will have to come to accept that there will becasualties. But when you know there willbe more deaths you prepare for it. Wewill need to prepare for mass deaths and we will need to rethink our healthcareand how we will handle future breakouts to treat those afflicted in the hopesof minimizing the death count. We willneed to build or convert warehouses to store what is needed and then convertquickly to spaces ready to deal with it.
Our soldiers on this front line won’t wear khaki but scrubs,they won’t be drafted but incentivized, they won’t train with bayonets but withventilators and when the next wave comes we won’t shutter up our industries butsoldier on.
We’ll have to.
Precautions will be taken, but casualties will come. We cannot pause an entire society for monthsat a time over and over again and expect there to be anything akin to normal soif the new normal is disruptive then we need to be prepared for that. If you know you’ll be navigating ice flowsduring the thaw then you better figure out how to navigate that!
Security screening at both ends of a trip must include ahealth component and the moment an area becomes infected then all travel fromit must be funnelled to controlled spaces where the returning people areisolated to prevent spread. Clearly ifno outbreaks have occurred then these measures are not warranted, but themoment there is even a whiff of one we must act decisively and proactively toensure that the monster is contained.
So what does that mean? It could mean a hangar and warehouse are built at several major airportsacross the country, over in the cargo sections with the sole purpose of sittinglargely and thankfully idle, so that the moment the W.H.O. spots an issue everyplane from it is routed to those hangars for secondary health screening. And that at the first sign of spread thenanyone from those areas isn’t just routed for screening but mandatoryisolation, as though they were already infected. Sort of like what New Zealand is doing, but not forevery flight all the time, just when there’s a reason – although the bar foractivating this must be lowered considerably.
And while such measures are invasive, and expensive, as itwould be in war, there’s an economy in that and we must embrace the newnormal.